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| STREAMLINE HLTH SOL Add to My Watchlist | (NSDQ: STRM) |
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| Tue, Sep 08, 2009 | ||
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Week Ahead: 9/11 Remembered - Wall Street Greek | |
| Mon, Dec 15, 2008 | ||
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Weekly Planner: Heading to Zero - Wall Street Greek | |
| Mon, May 19, 2008 | ||
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Wall Street Week Ahead - Kaminis Called Stock Market Bottom
As Wall Street rallies in stealth for some, your Wall Street Greek reminds you that Markos Kaminis predicted on March 10 (the stock market's bottom) that it was time to "buy the news." Wall Street rallied into the close on Friday, and turned in another positive week. The Dow Jones Industrials closed 1.9% higher through the five-day period, while the S&P 500 moved up 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.4%. The Nasdaq is up 17% from its low of March 10. Might the end truly be here for the bears? In this reactionary, counter-reactionary world, I have found criticism from both bulls and bears over the course of the last twelve months. So-called "experts" and novices alike have jumped down my throat via email and commentary to my articles at the site when I prognosticated correctly ahead of the game and against the herd on both occasions. Did you know that I once again called another economic forecast to the very day. See this article published on March 10, 2008, the exact day the market bottomed. Wall Street Greek predicted the very bottom of the stock market in 2008. If you've been reading, you know this is just another correct call in a series of prescient economic forecasts we've made. Remember, it was " The Greek" who began warning of this economic downturn as early as the winter of 2006. Then it was I again who forecast stock market recovery early this year, despite my expectations for ongoing economic softness. So, with all the headless chickens running around investing in stocks, I have to wonder why then investors find it logical that the even-keeled Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch are the greatest of all time? The key to successful long-term investing is in not letting emotions dictate your money flow, which is much harder said than done. Heck, equity mutual funds were still reporting outflows of capital as recently as the week before last. Meanwhile, stocks have been on the rise since March 10th. I bet you are surprised by that news, because during that span you've very likely been moving your money out stocks. It's a stealth rally if you are Main Street news centric, but for those of us well-versed in market phenomenon, we saw this coming. Plenty of capital is still on the sidelines, so as the herd gets on board, there should be plenty of opportunity still for latecomers. Even so, let's not rule out further market reconsideration, since GDP will be revised next week. Finally, our most important forecast yet: we view an Iran event as probable over the next few months, and that's not going to lead to peaceful times for investors, or anyone for that matter. The Week Ahead The coming week offers a relatively light load of economic data, but includes important information for economic forecasts. Monday On Monday, Leading Economic Indicators for April will provide insight into just how realistic the recession scenario is. Yes, that's right, we're not officially in a recession yet, though we expect that upon revision of first quarter GDP next week, there's a chance we'll see the economy contracted. Remember though, we need two quarters of contraction for an official "recession" label. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for April Leading Indicators to have fallen 0.1% (rose 0.1% in March) despite the stock market's rise through the period. We remind you again, in case you missed it, market action is a leading economic indicator. Internationally, markets in Canada, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will be closed on Monday. Earnings season continues here in the states, driven greatly by the reporting of retailers for their first quarter ended in April. Monday's schedule includes Lowe's ( Tuesday On Tuesday, State Street's Investor Confidence reading will be reported for May (April's was 72.8). This measure is rather current, since it is tallied on the second Tuesday of each month. Also, it's important to note that it measures the level of actual risk in investment portfolios. Indications are that there remain significant levels of cash within portfolios. Barron's reported that funds equal to 26% of total stock market value currently reside in cash alternatives, marking the greatest such level since 2003. We very well may see an uptick in investor confidence, but consumer sentiment, which was reported on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, indicated consumers feel as bad now as they did in the early eighties. Remember though, sentiment is a lagging indicator, so that when consumers and investors think things are most dire, the economy/market is usually already in recovery. Guess what, we are already in recovery. The perhaps early cyclical heavy Nasdaq is doing especially well, up some 17% since March 10. The Producer Price Index will also reach the wires on Tuesday, but this inflation gauge is likely to offer little interest to the market ahead of the report. Investors have already been primed by last week's moderate consumer price metric. We noted on the Wall Street Greek website this past Wednesday that CPI benefited from petroleum price back up that we already know reversed itself in May. At the same time, oil services pricing increased, as did food inflation. Thus, we found little reason to cheer the data, despite the market's positive interpretation. PPI is still worth paying attention to though, as producer prices continue to eventually find their way to your wallet. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for April's measure to have risen by 0.4% over March. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is seen 0.2% higher. These barometers were up 1.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in March. Of course, the weekly ICSC-UBS Same Store Sales Report is due before the market open on Tuesday. Remember, last week we estimated that the sharp rise in sales was probably a weather influenced figure, and we forecast a return to weak sales would likely result last week. We were right. Sales were only up 0.5% year-over-year last week, and fell 1.0% from the week before. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, a man not afraid to speak his mind, will address a group in New Orleans; the topic, the economic outlook. The Japanese Central Bank has an important decision to make Tuesday, and is seen holding rates steady at 0.5%. In the increasingly controversial Democratic Party contest, Obama and Hillary slug it out in Kentucky and Oregon. While markets will be closed in India and Indonesia, Tuesday's U.S. earnings schedule includes news from Analog Devices ( Wednesday The Federal Open Market Committee April meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, and the notes always offer economists material to debate with in regards to what the Fed will do next. As a result, it moves stocks, so pay attention to that on Wednesday afternoon at our website. Look for the weekly reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association (Mortgage Activity) and the Energy Information Administration (Petroleum Status). Oil jumped back into record territory last week, driven again by geopolitical concerns and a perceived negative news report from Saudi Arabia. The Arabs were viewed as in defiance of President Bush when they said they would increase oil output if demand called for it. This was interpreted as a denial to Bush's request for more oil now. However, The Greek interprets it this way, they will boost output when the war starts with Iran. That's actually good news, in a bad scenario. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh grabs a microphone in Washington, as he addresses the use of the fed-funds rate tool in times of economic need. While we're on DC, a Senate committee will interview oil company executives on the price situation. House of Representatives committees will be busy studying sovereign wealth funds and sub-prime mortgage concerns. While the Chilean market is shut, Wednesday's earnings reports here include BJ's Wholesale Club ( Thursday After jobless claims were noted at 371K last week, this week's consensus view for new claims filings adds up to 370K. Also look for the weekly Natural Gas Report from the EIA at 10:30. Energy investors will want to keep a look out for the government's annual hurricane forecast, though it's been far from accurate in recent years. Fed-man Randall Kroszner addresses a group of bankers in Florida, and Treasury Secretary Paulson participates in a panel discussion in Chicago. Markets will be closed in Austria, Brazil, Poland and Frankfurt, Germany. Thursday's earnings reports include Aeropostale ( Friday On Friday, we'll see if this week's positive Housing Starts report has a solid base. Existing Home Sales for the month of April are set for release. We theorized on Friday, in our article entitled " Housing Starts See Seasonal Impact Despite Adjustment," that housing benefited from an abnormal current period that applied an irrelevant average seasonal adjustment. We were in fact the sole voice discussing this possibility, while everyone else just passed it off as an anomaly without offering solid basis. We might see the same type of positive housing news in this Friday's report, so be wary when the market starts betting on housing recovery prematurely. Bloomberg's consensus sees the annual pace of existing home sales running at 4.85 million in April, compared to 4.93 in March. Bond markets close at 2:00 p.m. on Friday, ahead of the Memorial Day weekend holiday. The sole noteworthy earnings report we could find for Friday was Nordic American Tanker Shipping ( Keep up with daily market happenings with us all week long. Please see our disclosure at www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com. Article also interests AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD. 
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| Mon, Nov 26, 2007 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Insane Hour
The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week. It started as early as 4:00 AM in some places. It was not a fishing trip or some other event that normally begins at a ridiculously difficult hour. No, it was the start to the shopping season this past BLACK FRIDAY! I participated in the mayhem one wild year, and though it was the most efficient shopping experience of my life, it was also insane. It's all a trick you know... It's commercial America's sly way to get you into the stores for the longest day of shopping history. You get started so early and fueled by the adrenaline rush associated with catching your favorite store's blockbuster deal that you just keep going all day long. And if you miss the morning rush, you know there are still good deals to be had, so you go out anyway. Bah humbug! Keep an eye on the site this week, as I'll be publishing plenty of value-added reports alongside the regular daily market preview. The Week Ahead... Monday is data empty following the long holiday weekend. The earnings schedule is also light, including the likes of Citi Trends ( Tuesday offers the weekly same-store sales data from the International Council of Shopping Centers. Last week's report showed sales only rose 2.2% over the year ago period. This week's data will offer an interesting comparison to last year's week that included Black Friday. At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board will report the Consumer Confidence Index. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for further deterioration in a reading of 90.5, down from 95.6 in October. Both confidence figures published by the Conference Board and the University of Michigan are at low points for the year, and down significantly from last year's shopping season. Fed President Charles Plosser is scheduled to address a group at Rochester University on Tuesday. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is expected to show further deterioration, and according to Barron's quoted expert from MFR, an acceleration of rate of decline. It's debatable how the market will interpret such information. On the one hand, it clearly means each sale is less profitable for homebuilders. Also, equity values are decreasing for home owners still, and some of these owners may be sitting on homes whose mortgage is larger than the home value, offering incentive to default out of tough loans. On the other hand, lower prices might allow inventory to move at a better rate and bring supply into closer alignment with demand. Eventually, this has to happen for the market to stabilize. The earnings calendar includes American Eagle Outfitters ( The data load gets busy on Wednesday, starting with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting of Purchase Applications. Changes to this data are just not important yet, but they have revealed a stealth refinancing effort as the government and interested parties, including banks set to deal with defaults, do their best to get people into manageable loans. Not everybody agrees on the catalysts though. Countrywide Financial's ( Durable goods orders will be reported for the month of October at 8:30 on Wednesday. Bloomberg's consensus is anticipating a 0.3% month-to-month increase, and this compares to September's decrease of 1.7%. Expectations vary here, and another decrease is not out of the question. For instance, Barron's quoted Lehman Brother's expectation for a 0.7% decline. At 10:00 AM, look for the pace of Existing Home Sales to have slipped again in October. Bloomberg's consensus forecast expects an annual pace of 4.95 million sales, compared to 5.04 million in the month just prior. A half hour later, all eyes will find the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Last week's report showed a crude oil draw 1.1 million barrels from inventory. At 2:00 pm, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions. The day's earnings schedule includes Aeropostale ( Thursday is power packed full of economic data points. Corporate Profits for the third quarter will be published at 8:30 a.m. The initial reporting of Q3 GDP at 3.9% is expected to be revised up to 4.8% by Bloomberg's group of economists. Though highly publicized and well-anticipated, it will be interesting to see how the Fed-cut-expecting market receives this news. I continue to expect the market to receive a royal slap in the face on December 11th, when the FOMC announcement is made and rates are kept steady. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are seen matching last week's reporting of 330K. New home sales for October are expected to measure at an annual pace of 753K, down from 770K in September. We do not disagree with the direction, though the level could surprise even lower. The EIA Natural Gas Report comes at 10:30, and nat gas is finding support now from a colder than average temperature forecast for the coming week. Bernanke finds a mic at 7 p.m., so stay tuned to the wire in the evening, or read the Greek's Morning Report on Friday, as this could be news worthy. The earnings reporting schedule includes Dell ( On Friday, the last day of November, Personal Income and Consumption for October are due to be reported. The consensus is looking for a 0.4% increase in income. After Friday's rumor of massive pending layoffs at Citigroup ( The National Association of Purchasing Managers - Chicago will post its manufacturing report for the Midwest on Friday as well. The consensus is looking for a reading of 49.7. Recall, anything below 50.0 signifies contraction in the business sector. Construction spending for October is expected to have fallen 0.3%, no surprise. However, recall The Greek's forecast from almost a year ago, that construction spending for commercial property will soon follow the path of residential; this based on tighter overall lending standards and lower consumer spending, which should lead to contraction within retail. At 3:00 pm, look for the farm report, and please see our article published over the holiday weekend, "Secular Change of Food Prices Justify P/E Expansion for Industry Participants." On the Fed tour, St. Louis President Poole and Fed Governor Kroszner are both scheduled to speak on Friday. The day's earnings schedule includes Big Lots ( Please support our effort by visiting the site and supporting our advertisers . Receive Wall Street Greek FREE via email by subscribing here . ( disclosure ) 
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| Mon, Aug 27, 2007 | ||
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The Greek's Week Ahead - Wall Street's Summer Wind
The last week of August and the week that includes Labor Day are favorites for Wall Street types to take some vacation time. That likelihood only increased for a great deal of institutional players who needed to postpone their vacation plans of the two weeks just passed. I could just hear them explaining to their dearests, "You don't get it sweetheart, if I don't go to the office, there may not be a vacation next year." Still, we don't care how powerful you are, you can only hold the wife off for so long. We anticipate a barren scene (excuse the pun) on Wall Street over the next two weeks, depending on the number and degree of finance fires that need to be put out. However, today's virtual world caters to the investment banker, and if need be, he can always just hop on a helicopter or seaplane and return from the Hamptons early.
Still, the fun in the sun did not stop the retail crowd from withdrawing $6.8 billion from mutual funds last week, excluding ETF activity. In fact, it probably offered most some free time to do so. We expect more of the same in the near-term, as retail dough typically lags the smart money, which, according to Barron's, was bargain hunting. Your favorite Greek fondly recalls the summer commute in New York. If I wasn't on a beach in Greece, I was enjoying a significantly shorter cab share line on the Upper East Side and half empty Mario Van Shuttles or subway car rides home in the evenings. It almost made the soupy humidity bearable. The point here is that trading should be significantly lighter this week, and maybe next week as well, depending on when school starts and if papa is going to grant junior a reprieve so his old man can finally get some rest. Now, lighter volume does not imply less volatility. It just means you can't read too much into market and security movements, and you should not let the downticks panic you. That said, the week ahead is information heavy, setting up a quite ominous scenario in such precarious times. Monday kicks off the week with an opportunity for the housing market to provide verification or refutation of last week's stronger than expected new home sales for the month of July. You see, the existing home sales market is much more important (read bigger) than that for new abodes, and July's used market results are due out at 10:00 a.m. on Monday morning. According to Bloomberg's consensus of economists, we should look for an annual sales pace of 5.7 million. That's down from June's 5.75 million. In other news, we should note that markets in the U.K. will be closed for the day. In the U.S., Monday's earnings report schedule is light and includes Harmony Gold Mining ( Tuesday ushers in the possibility of a blood red close, due to some important news from the Federal Reserve. At 2:00 p.m., the Fed will release the minutes from its August Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Barron's speculates it may also release the minutes from its August 16 conference call that preceded the group's decision to cut the discount rate by 50 basis points. Wall Street Greek certainly hopes that if the August meeting notes carry a hawkish tone, the Fed will consider the consequences of such a message, and also issue the notes from its emergency conference call. If it does so, our concerns will be doubly pacified by the fact that William Poole was busy at a prior arrangement that day and was reportedly not present for the call or the vote to cut the discount rate. Therefore, we will likely be spared any of his discussion of calamitous consequence. The first bit of news out on Tuesday will be the regular weekly ICSC-UBS same-store sales data, providing some further insight into the state of the retail environment. Last week's report showed a week-to-week increase of 0.2% and year-over-year rise of 2.7%. While still growing, retail expansion is running at a much more moderate pace of late. Wall Street Greek continues to advise of our expectation that retail sales will weaken on consumer softness, in light of the many often discussed pressures on the center column of our economy. At 10:00, the Conference Board is scheduled to report consumer confidence. Bloomberg's consensus of experts sees confidence slipping in August, to 105, from 112.6 in July. We will not insult your intelligence here by explaining why... The S&P/Case Shiller home price index for June is also due for release on Tuesday, and we expect it to post another decline. If not, we are fairly certain that July's results will show a dramatic decline in prices, as implied by the pickup in new home sales during the relative month. Tuesday marks the end of the extension for Accredited Home Lenders ( Tuesday's earnings reports include Anaren Incorporated ( Wednesday brings the weekly Purchase Applications Index report from the Mortgage Bankers' Association, and because it's much more current than the housing news from last week and Monday, it's more important in our view. Wednesday also sheds more light on the state of the oil market, as the Energy Information Administration issues its weekly Petroleum Status Report. In other news, Latin America and the world are anticipating a possible general strike in Chile. We are sure Venezuela's Chavez, who recently offered a large chunk of aid to Latin America, will have some more to say on the subject Wednesday. Chavez looks to build up regional support and fuel his own fire against the United States. Situations like the one developing in Chile offer him opportunity to do so. We seek to bring attention to the risk that Mr. Chavez may move from a comical opportunity for the Saturday Night Live cast, to a serious threat to the United States if he is successful in drumming up broader support for his movement. Wednesday's earnings schedule includes Big Lots ( The first revision to Q2 GDP growth is set for release on Thursday, and Bloomberg's consensus sees Real GDP adjusted higher to 4.0%, from 3.4% initially reported. Folks, we advise not getting caught up in the old news number, despite Hank Paulson's cheerleading that is likely to follow it's release. The here and now seems to clearly indictate a slowing of economic growth or outright recession in coming months. We have been anticipating recession since we started this project almost a year ago. We continue to argue that if a softening consumer does not do it, a messy and complicated war with Iran and its allies (read both nations and terrorist organizations) will. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported at 8:30 a.m., and it's about time this data starts to show signs of a weakening employment environment. We expect the later September report of the Employment Situation will show new hiring sharply lower, excluding seasonal affects. The Help Wanted Index, reported Thursday as well, might have proven valuable, but it focuses on print ads for jobs. As you know, there is strong migration to the online medium, and the Monster.com data is becoming more important. Still, the Help Wanted numbers remain worth checking in on. The EIA reports natural gas inventory on Thursday, as usual. As long as the Atlantic is devoid of hurricane, or war with Iran is not imminent, we expect natural gas should continue its trend lower. You see, the most important driver of oil and nat gas is economic health. Some will argue that global demand is what matters, but remember, the natural gas market remains a somewhat localized market. While we believe natural gas is increasingly becoming a more important substitute for oil in many instances, and remains sensitive to changes in the price of oil, we also expect a softer U.S. economy to impact the economies of manufacturing nations and other trading partners. In other words, U.S. weakness should bleed into the global economy enough to impact industrial commodity prices and petrochemicals, not to mention high flying equity markets overseas. Thursday's earnings schedule includes some specific reports worth breaking out. H&R Block ( The rest of Thursday's earnings reports include Dell Inc. ( Just when you thought it was safe to leave work early for the three day holiday weekend, we get a busy day for economic news Friday. At 8:30 a.m., the Fed's favorite inflation gauge will be reported, the PCE deflator. If ever it was important for the figure to show inflation moderation, it is now. Personal Income is expected to show a July increase of 0.3%, while Consumption is seen increasing 0.4%. We remind you that these are rearview mirror type numbers, but July was not too far back. Wall Street Greek expects both personal income and spending to trend softer in months to come. As far as the inflation gauge goes, we do not think the PCE figure matters as much as the Fed does. This is because of our differing view regarding food prices. We know from recent reports and conference calls of major food providers that pricing pressure is not easing for grain, feed and proteins. We know severe disease plagues China's pork market, and are well aware of China's growing need for imported food, due partly to its population growth and partly to its industrial revolution. Food prices are a secular problem, not seasonal, and the Fed must recognize this. Food prices pressure the consumer, and they will not go away any time soon, in our view. The PCE metric focuses on the prices of consumer goods and services, and the Fed is concerned with prices excluding food and energy. If prices look elevated, the Fed may continue with its avoidance of significant rate reduction. This error, in our view, could discredit the Fed and help lead our economy into deeper recession. If confidence is lost in the Fed's ability to aid securities markets, we expect a great degree of capital could be lost to investors. The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago is seen reporting its index at roughly 53 for August, versus 53.4 in July. More importantly, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment reading is expected to drop to 82.5 for August, versus 90.4 in July. We agree, sentiment is on the downswing. It's generally been that way all year outside of a few monthly blips higher. Factory orders are seen rising 3.2% for July, according to Bloomberg's count. On numerous occasions, we have outlined our view that manufacturing will not show weakness until after consumer and employment softness develop in the U.S. This is due to international demand for cheap U.S. product on dollar weakness. Last but certainly not least important, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be in Jackson Hole attempting to avoid falling into a hole of his own, as he addresses housing, housing finance and monetary policy. We think a few people might be interested in what he has to say... Friday's earnings reporters include Aktieselskabet Dampskibsselskabet Torm ( Receive Wall Street Greek via email by subscribing here. If you change your mind, it's easy to unsubscribe. We respect your privacy and will not share your information with any third party. (disclosure)
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Q3 2008 Earnings
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